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Russia-Ukraine War | Putin and Lukashenko fear that the Belarusian Army will change sides

You have to open a criminal case in the International Criminal Court against Lukashenko for crimes against humanity. He has admitted himself guilty, at times, to various crimes, including the murder of opponents. Crises such as that of immigrants in 2021 occurred under his direct orders. Putin is a president recognized by the international community, but Lukashenko is not recognized by most countries in the world. Putin cannot be removed from the Kremlin. But in the case of Lukashenko it is quite easy. He lives 160 kilometers from Lithuania. In addition, Putin has a faithful entourage made up of men who became rich thanks to him. On the other hand, Lukashenko has had 10 prime ministers, 10 interior ministers, nine directors of the secret services… He ends up dismissing all of them so that they do not acquire authority. This creates conditions for the (West) to ‘collaborate’ with the Belarusian elite, including the arrest itself. The second point that we raise is an ultimatum to Minsk to demand the release of political prisoners, which includes the closure of railway communications for goods. We calculate that 4% of Chinese trade with the EU crosses Belarusian territory and if the blockade is imposed, it will create a conflict between Lukashenko, Beijing and Moscow. During the immigrant crisis in 2021, diplomacy never worked, and Lukashenko perceived calls from (Angela) Merkel as a sign of weakness. But when the Poles closed the movement of vehicles for two days, queues of hundreds of kilometers were formed and the migrant crisis was solved. If the release of the political prisoners is finally achieved, it totally changes the political atmosphere in Belarus. The third point is the celebration of online elections. It is clear that they cannot be carried out on the ground, but they can be carried out through new technologies, in order to create a legitimate institution in the eyes of Belarusians that can facilitate the transition of power.

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