10 December 2024
According to information received today from a credible source, Bashar al-Assad may still be in the Middle East. Reports in the media about his evacuation by plane were part of a cover operation. In reality, Assad was taken out of Tartus Naval Base on a military vessel.
Given that Russian military ships are currently unable to pass through the Bosphorus due to the war and the restrictions outlined in the Montreux Convention, the ship is likely traveling through the Mediterranean Sea toward the Atlantic and then into the Baltic Sea.
However, there is a possibility that Assad and his family could be transported through the Bosphorus, although this would be a riskier operation. In such a case, the vessel might be subject to inspection by Turkish authorities unless Russia and Turkey have reached an agreement to facilitate the transportation of Assad's family in this manner. If the crossing of the Bosphorus is indeed planned, it could happen as early as today, as the standard notification procedure for a cargo ship crossing takes three days.
The story about evacuation by plane was deliberate disinformation. This tactic has been used before by Russia during the evacuation of Viktor Yanukovych from Crimea, when it was officially reported that he was being transported by helicopter, while a military vessel was actually used. Aircraft like the IL-76 are vulnerable to attacks by portable missile systems, making a ship a safer option.
It should also be noted that the emergency evacuation protocol stipulates that evacuation is to be carried out by any other possible means, with air transport being used only as a last resort if no other options are available.
Additional disinformation, including rumors about Assad purchasing apartments worth $40 million, transferring $150 billion to Russia, or planning to open an ophthalmology clinic there, is aimed at diverting attention from Assad's real whereabouts. These statements are intended to halt searches for him in the Middle East and to reduce the attention of Turkish authorities and other countries where Russian military ships might refuel.
